Howard Marks, a seasoned investor with Oaktree Capital, has an eye for undervalued companies. He writes an occasional “Memo” that is readily available from Oaktree and reprinted in several other venues.
His 8/1/2021 Memo is “Thinking About Macro.” His Big Picture view is laced with common sense, such as this quote from Amos Tversky (1937-1996): “It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know exactly what’s going on.”
And this uncannily timely quote from Mark Twain (1835-1910): “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
Marks focuses on individual companies rather than macro themes. He wrote: “It may be hard to admit–to yourself or to others–that you don’t know what the macro future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty, agnosticism is probably wiser than self-delusion.”
The stock market’s deep plunge in March 2020 was a scary time, with most stocks bottoming on 3/23/20. I found a profound 3/19/20 article by Marks at Madison Wealth Management entitled, “Legendary Investor, Howard Marks, on the Coronavirus.” The photo below is from that article.